News

AFS Comment on Burden of Liver Disease Report

Public Health Scotland has today (18^th March) published a new report on chronic liver disease, part of a series of reports on the Scottish Burden of Disease.

The reports estimate future disease prevalence and burden due to Scotland’s changing demographics – namely an ageing and diminishing population - anticipating the extent of future public health challenges.

The number of people with chronic liver disease in Scotland is projected to increase by 54% by 2044. This equates to an additional 23,100 people living with chronic liver disease in 2044 compared to 2019.

The majority (over 70%) of cases of chronic liver disease are caused by alcohol. The percentage of liver disease deaths where alcohol was the primary cause has almost doubled since 1982.

Liver disease is known as the ‘silent killer’ as three-quarters of cirrhosis patients are diagnosed in emergency departments, when it is too late for effective treatment or intervention. If detected earlier, alcohol-related liver disease can be reversed.

The report notes that any increase in prevalence of chronic liver disease is likely to impact the sustainability of services in the future and that the projected increases in the prevalence and burden of chronic liver disease are not inevitable - effective prevention at all levels can contribute to reducing the number of people developing chronic liver disease.

Public Health Scotland projects that the combined annual disease burden from all causes of disease and injury is forecast to increase by 21% in the next 20 years.

Laura Mahon, Deputy Chief Executive of Alcohol Focus Scotland said:

“These shocking figures once again highlight the fact that Scotland is in the grip of ongoing alcohol emergency, which is only likely to worsen without a genuine emergency response.

“Alcohol-specific deaths have reached a 15-year high. Alcohol-related liver disease is responsible for most of these deaths, with 805 people lost to this disease in 2023. It is a silent killer, which can affect people over the long-term, often showing no obvious symptoms until it’s too late. Just regularly drinking over 14 units per week increases your risk of developing liver disease.

“It doesn’t have to be this way. Each of these deaths is entirely preventable, and there are a range of well evidenced and cost-effective prevention measures available which could be adopted.

“These include increased use of non-invasive liver scans to enable those at high risk to be identified sooner and provided with care and support to address their liver problem and their alcohol use. Restrictions on alcohol marketing and introducing clear health warning labels on alcohol products should form part of a new comprehensive alcohol strategy.

“Not only would these measures save thousands of lives, they would also substantially reduce the financial pressures on our health service, ultimately delivering better healthcare for everyone.”